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LTE to become largest contributor to global revenues this year, analyst firm says; China is ‘envy of other developing markets.’
The number of LTE subscriptions worldwide will approach 2 billion by the end of this year and will grow almost threefold by 2022, according to new analyst company statistics published this week.
There will be 1.9 billion user-linked 4G subscriptions – that is handsets, modems, tablets and connected devices, but not machine-to-machine connections – by end-2016, up from 1.1 billion at the start of the year, Strategy Analytics predicts.
By 2022, it forecasts that figure will have grown to 5.6 billion, equivalent to 62% of all user-linked mobile subscriptions.
By that date, 5G connections will also have started to make an impact. There will be 116 million 5G subscriptions in 2022, up from around 2 million in 2020, the year in which the first 5G deployments are expected to commence.
From a revenue point of view, 4G will start to dominate this year.
4G revenue will grow by 35% to US$426 billion this year, accounting for 49% of global mobile revenues, despite the fact that 4G represents just 25% of connections, Strategy Analytics believes.
That puts it ahead of 3G and 2G, which will see revenues decline by 19% and 21% respectively.
While the revenue share coming from 4G will be as high as 90% in South Korea, 82% in Japan and 79% in North America, there are still many markets where the technology has yet to fully take off. 4G revenue share will be as low as 10% in the Middle East and Africa, for example.
"The advanced markets of the USA, Japan, and South Korea will see the vast majority of their revenue come from 4G LTE services this year, though China will also make a significant contribution," said Phil Kendall, executive director, wireless operator strategies, at Strategy Analytics.
"Overtaking the USA to become the world’s largest 4G market in Q3 2015, China is the envy of other developing markets with over half of its 2016 revenue projected to come from 4G LTE," he added.
