CCS Insight this week predicted global mobile phone shipments will reach 2.24 billion in 2019, down from an earlier forecast of 2.35 billion, due to softening demand in China.
"Growth has stalled as most Chinese consumers have made the transition to smartphones," said Jasdeep Badyal, in a research note on Wednesday. "Future sales are now dependent on replacement purchases, as is the case in other mature markets."
Of the 2.24 billion handset shipments, CCS expects smartphones to account for 2 billion. By comparison, the company expects phone shipments this year to reach 2.01 billion, of which 1.45 billion will be smartphones.
Meanwhile, 4G smartphone shipments are expected to reach 770 million in 2015, again driven by China.
"The country’s mobile network operators have built up their 4G networks in record time. The result is that two out of every three phones sold in China in 2015 will support 4G," Badyal predicted.
In terms of manufacturers, Apple is by far the most profitable, enjoying an average selling price (ASP) of $659 worldwide in the first half of 2015. By comparison, CCS expects Android’s full-year ASP will come in at $164 this year.
Samsung remains the world’s biggest phone-maker by v olume, according to CCS Insight, but the analyst firm said the companies to watch are Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei, Lenovo and Xiaomi, which together accounted for 21% of the Android smartphone market in the first half, and are looking increasingly outside of China for future growth.
"Chinese companies have been targeting overseas growth for some time, but now their home market is maturing, we expect them to pile even greater pressure on competitors as they seek new opportunities elsewhere," Badyal said.
