Ericsson on Wednesday predicted there will be 26 billion connected devices by 2020, significantly fewer than the 50 billion predicted by Hans Vestberg shortly after his appointment as CEO in 2009.
In the latest edition of its Mobility Report, the Swedish kit maker said it expects global smartphone subscriptions to more than double over the next five years to 6.1 billion, or 70% of the world’s population, and added that smartphones will account for 80% of all mobile data traffic. Mobile broadband coverage is forecast to reach 90% of the population.
60% of all mobile data traffic will be video, Ericsson said, which is expected to grow by 55% per year to 2020.
"This immense growth in advanced mobile technology and data usage, driven by a surge in mobile connectivity and smartphone uptake, will make today’s big data revolution feel like the arrival of a floppy disk," said Rima Qureshi, Ericsson’s chief strategy officer, in a statement.
"We see the potential for mass-scale transformation, bringing a wealth of opportunities for telecom operators and others to capture new revenue streams. But it also requires greater focus on cost efficient delivery and openness to new business models to compete and remain effective," she said.
However, it appears that operators will not have nearly so many devices connected to their networks as Ericsson previously thought.
"Ericsson’s forecast, outlined in the report, points to 26 billion connected devices by 2020, confirming we are well on the way to reaching the vision of 50 billion connected devices," said Ericsson.
Or to put it another way: Ericsson’s prediction six years ago that there would be 50 billion connected devices by 2020 might be off by 24 billion devices.
