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In 2015, mobile device users installed nearly 156 billion mobile applications worldwide.
IDC predicted that growth in application installation volumes and app revenue will slow over time, although the research company said the market will continue to grow until 2020.
In 2015, mobile device users installed nearly 156 billion mobile applications worldwide, generating $34.2 billion in direct (non-advertising) revenue, IDC said.
Growth in application install volumes is expected to fall into the single digits, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3%. Direct revenue from mobile applications will also experience slower growth, although the five-year CAGR will remain in the double digits at 10.6%.
Apple’s App Store "ecosystem" captured nearly 58% of global direct app revenue in 2015, an increase of 36% year on year. Meanwhile, Apple’s share of global app install volume was only 15%, down nearly 8% year over year.
IDC noted that the sheer volume of Android-based devices in use ensures a greater overall number of installs through Google Play, which captured about 60% of install volume and nearly 36% of direct revenue in 2015.
Although Google Play enjoyed solid year-over-year growth in both downloads and direct revenues, the gains were somewhat lower than in previous years. Apple is expected to continue outperforming Google Play in terms of revenue generation. However IDC said both ecosystems are more than sufficiently established to sustainably attract developers.
John Jackson, research VP at IDC, also cautioned that a preoccupation with download/install volumes and associated direct revenue “may miss the thrust of changes in the mobile marketplace”.
“Facebook and Google continue to dominate mobile ad spending thanks to the scale and sophistication of their network effects, with Facebook’s moves to incorporate news and other interests into its experience will likely pull traffic and install volumes away from discreet apps,” he said.
Further, Jackson said the emergence of ‘bots’, which seek to automate interactions in a contextually infused way, are another in a series of examples of value being created above the OS layer and even above the app.
