Market research firm Dell’Oro has revised the global market share forecast of Open RAN downwards for the first time since tracking the technology began 

According to a new report, Open RAN cumulative revenue predictions have been lowered by 5% to 10% from now until 2027. The firm cites “hesitancy about the next generation architectures” for the downward revision. 

Currently, Open RAN makes up a ‘mid-single digit share’ of the RAN market, estimated at between 6-10%. 

“We can think of this revision more as a near-term calibration than a change in the long-term growth trajectory,” said Vice President and analyst Stefan Pongratz from Dell’Oro Group.  

“We continue to believe that Open RAN is here to stay and the growing support by the incumbent suppliers bolsters this thesis.” 

This is the first negative forecast revision that Dell’Oro has given Open RAN. This follows three years of revenue accelerating faster than expected and multiple positive forecasts, most recently in January. 

Dell’Oro noted in its report that while European operators have taken a lead in announcing their ambitious Open RAN targets, their deployment has been slow, with focus remaining on building out 5G using traditional RAN technology. The forecast therefore reflects these delays and assumes further ones.  

However, the forecast still expects the European market to become a leader in Open RAN, worth over $1 billion by 2027. 

Open RAN revenue is forecast to make up 15–20% of the total global RAN network by 2027. 

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