The first autonomous drive cars will be on the market next year, but the industry still has a lot of work to do to convince regulators to give the go-ahead, the CEO of a major automotive group told attendees at Mobile World Congress on Monday.
The first wave of cars with self-drive capabilities will begin in 2016, said Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of the Renault-Nissan alliance. With these early models, the autonomy will be limited to traffic jams, he explained.
"The technology’s ready. We just need the regulators to accept the technology," Ghosn said.
The second wave of vehicles, due in 2018, will have the autonomy to change lanes while driving on a motorway, while autonomous city driving will follow in 2020.
"The car without a driver" is further off, perhaps 10 years away, Ghosn said.
Regulatory bodies will obviously be much more reluctant to allow driverless cars than autonomous cars, he pointed out.
"Regulation from time to time determines markets," Ghosn said, using the prevalence of diesel-powered vehicles in Europe to illustrate his point. More than 50% of cars in Europe run on diesel, the market having been driven by regulatory incentives. Meanwhile, in the U.S. and Japan, where there were no incentives, the proportion of diesel cars is less than 1%.
Similarly, electric cars – a key area of focus for Renault-Nissan and rival car makers – have taken off strongly in Atlanta, where owners get tax breaks and easier parking, and where there is already a lot of infrastructure in place for charging.
Electric cars are also proving popular in China and Japan, Ghosn said.
There could soon be additional competition in the market if rumours that Apple is working on an electric car turn out to be true. However, Ghosn is unphased by the prospect.
"It’s very good news for us," he said, since it draws co nsumer attention and will drive the market as a whole.
As automotive technology advances, from electric to autonomous and driverless cars, "you’re going to have alliances between car makers and technology companies," he added.
Renault-Nissan will launch two autonomous cars in 2016 and the same in 2018, Ghosn confirmed.
"[We will] start with the top of the line," he said, admitting that these kinds of capabilities will increase the price of the vehicles.
"But it never lasts," he said, noting that as with all new technologies, the price premium will disappear once there is some competition in the market.
