What does the future hold for NG-PON?

Anticipating the future is never an easy task, especially when it comes to technology. We need only look to the ongoing pandemic to understand just how quickly well-made plans can be disrupted, with the world at large forced to rapidly adapt to unforeseen circumstances.

 

But the pandemic has also demonstrated just how valuable accurate planning and adoption of new technology can be. It is largely to telcos’ conservative network planning, anticipating ever-growing traffic and data consumption over the coming years, that networks have held up remarkably well throughout the crisis, able to support the huge increase in demand. 

 

Now, in an increasingly digitalised, data-driven world, this demand is only going to accelerate, making staying ahead of the game more important than ever. For PON technology, the next phase of development is beginning to bear fruit and will soon come to dominate the market.

  

“GPON has a good life still in front of it,” explained Ronald Heron, FN lead technology strategist at Nokia. “However, XGS is beginning to enter the market. It will be surpassing GPON in around 2023, to become dominant in new markets and deployments by 2025.”

 

In short, now is the time to consider the true evolution of this technology.

 

But what might that future look like? 

 

New demands brought on by the 5G era will necessitate 25G PON and, even further into the future, 25G WDM-PON, 50G TWDM, and 50G G.HSP – all of which are beginning to receive recognition within the industry as standards are being developed. In fact, mobile is going to be one of the key drivers for this technology, with mobile front haul a key challenge that needs to be addressed.

 

All of these technologies bring unique pros and cons, but some of the demands from the operators are unanimous: coexistence and scalability will need to be paramount. 

 

“One of the things that is very important for us is that the new technology is scalable,” said Rajesh Yadav, Chief Architect at Verizon. “You need to be able to easily scale up as demand increases and to offer different services. A ‘pay-as-you-grow’ model is needed.”

 

In this regard, multi-wavelength PON technology will be a key enabler for a flexible, unified access network. This is a technology that can evolve networks in real time, potentially greatly enhancing the operators’ agility.

 

“There are many opportunities here for innovation here. For example, could we do network slicing with other service providers that provides them with the ability to take their own wavelengths over this network?” mused David Tomalin, CTO of CityFibre. “That potential for innovation comes from having these leading edge technologies.”

 

Today, with the coronavirus demonstrating a rapid acceleration of digitalisation around the world, telcos need to harness advances in PON technology and prepare themselves for the next generation. 

 

“Right now, we know that XGS is going to be the next big thing and we need to do it well,” concluded Heron.